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Kar Lung Ho
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Forum Member
Total Posts: 3
Joined: 25 May 08
Member #55
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Hi all,
I was wondering if anyone can help me.
I am designing a new production system as the company I work for do not have one at all. (they have expanded from a very small operation to a very large medium operation in a very short time!!)
I have started with a product code system first, using the 2 alpha code with 4 digits as finished codes and 6 digits for raw mat.
I am first trying to do a basic forecasting model before I attempt to produce an Invertory system etc.
The problem I am coming up with is what will be the best method off using as a forecast method??
Time-scale or mutiply equation methods?? or is there a better method??
The products are very fast moving and the customer orders time can be from o hours to 5 hours before production!!!!
(this is due to the SOP system they have which I will need to look at due to customers order on the day for the same day delivery!!!)
Any help would be appreciated or further information you need to help me I can provide.
I have been employed as a production planner and was wondering if this is an actual production planners role or more of an operational manager role??
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John Hardwick
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Forum Member
Total Posts: 13
Joined: 09 Jul 07
Location: Reading
Member #7
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Kar Lung, in such short time scales I would recommend against trying to forecast. I would look at historical demand and look at the variation in demand you get in a time period vs the leadtime for supply. Then calculate the buffer stock you would need to buffer against demand variation. It all depends on how much variation in finished items there is, and what your replenishment time is (both your manufacturing lead time and your suppliers lead time). For example, for a finished item, say you get demand between 10 and 20 per week, with a standard deviation of 3.4, your average is 15. (so make 15 per week) Assuming an even distribution over time, and a replenishment lead time of 2 weeks, then to buffer against the variation, allow 2 x standard deviation x lead time would need 2 x 2 x 3.4 = 13.6 so say 15 units. Sometimes your stock will be less than 15, sometime more, but you could then supply from stock! You need to frequently review the demand so you don't run out or start growing too much inventory. If your demand is for many different units, made from common components, then do the calculations for raw materials in the same way instead, and make to order. Hope this helps?
John Hardwick
FIOM
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qiang du
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Forum Member
Total Posts: 3
Joined: 12 Apr 10
Member #154
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dear mate,
Why bother implementing forecasting calculation in your spreadsheets? Actually, many factors residing in demand of products have to be taken into accout, trends and seasonality. If you are interested, I recommend a demand forecasting software to you, ForecastX Wizard, which is intelligently chooses the best-fit forecasting model to do the best forecast. You can google it. It can be seamlessly working with Excel.
regards,
Jon
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paulmartin347
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Forum Member
Total Posts: 2
Joined: 09 Oct 10
Member #187
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Hey sorry dear. I can't help. Because I have no idea about it.
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bettytaylor23
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Forum Member
Total Posts: 2
Joined: 09 Oct 10
Location: Abington
Member #189
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I pray that you will get success in your project very soon.
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ktmiller
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Forum Member
Total Posts: 2
Joined: 14 Jan 12
Member #333
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In an ever volatile world, effective planning and forecasting starts with understanding what the operational drivers are in any organization. Scott Brennan, Accenture’s director for the Enterprise Performance Management practice, talks with Business Finance chief editor Peter Alpern about the necessary tools and technologies to gauge future performance, how they are best integrated and why more efficient and accurate planning, budgeting and forecasting begins by blowing up the process. You can also save money with truck rental if you hire a good company.
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